How do you calculate the expected value of a no deposit bonus?
It’s easy to calculate the EV of a no deposit bonus. All you need is three values to plugin to the EV equation. They are the bonus amount, the bonus wagering requirement (bonus x requirement) and the house edge of the game you play using bonus funds. The equation is: Bonus – (Requirement x Edge) = EV.
For example, consider a no deposit cash bonus of $20 with a wagering requirement of 20x you use to play an online slot game with a return to player (RTP) of 96% i.e. with a house edge of 4%.
The EV formula would be as follows:
$20 – ((20 x $20) x 4%) = EV
$20 – ($400 x 4%) = EV
$20 – $16 =EV
$4 = EV
As you can see the EV in this case is positive $4. This means that this no deposit bonus is worth claiming. If, however, the expected value turned out to be negative based on the variables plugged into the equation, we would recommend you seek out better i.e. more worthwhile no deposit bonus to focus your attention on.
10 Examples of No Deposit Bonuses with a Positive EV
It’s one thing to write about best no deposit bonus offers with a positive EV and another to give you actual examples you can claim for yourself. So to put our no deposit bonus cash where our mouth is, see our exclusive no deposit bonuses each with a positive EV. Note: in each example we’ve used a slot with a house edge of 1%.
Fairgo Casino is offering all new players a $15 free casino chip – no deposit required. This bonus has a playthrough requirement of 60x and a max cash out of $180.
Here’s how its expected value works out:
$15 – ((60 x $15) x 1%) = EV
$15 – ($900 x 1%) = EV
$15 – $9 = EV
$6 = EV
With an EV of positive $6, this bonus is definitely worth claiming.
21Dukes Casino has a bold $40 no deposit sign-up bonus you can use to play games from Octopus Gaming or IGTech. It has a 75x requirement and a maximum withdrawal limit of $100.
Here is its EV:
$40 – ((75 x $40) x 1%) = EV
$40 – ($3000 x 1%) = EV
$40 – $30 = EV
$10 = EV
With an EV of positive $10, this no deposit bonus is a must.
Uptown Aces Casino has an exclusive bonus code MY50FREESPINS which activates 50 Free Spins no deposit bonus. It has a 60x playthrough requirement, and a maximum cash out limit of $200.
Check out its EV:
$10 – ((60 x $10) x 1%) = EV
$10 – ($600 x 1%) = EV
$10 – $6 = EV
$4 = EV
With an EV of positive $4, Uptown Aces Casino’s no deposit bonus should not be ignored.
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Yabby CasinoExclusive 200 Free Spins on Olympus Thunderhold
M Casino has an exciting no deposit bonus worth £10 that all newly registering players can take advantage of. It has a winnings withdrawal limit of £50 and a 99x wagering requirement x99. (Note: it requires credit card details to unlock).
Its EV rating is:
£10 – ((99 x £10) x 1%) = EV
£10 – (£999 x 1%) = EV
£10 – £9.99 = EV
£0.10 = EV
Ok, so this is an interesting bonus because it just squeaks out with a positive expected value (if you play a game with house odds of 1%) which makes it worthwhile to claim.
Grand Fortune Casino has a no deposit bonus code 35NDBGF which unlocks $35 in free chips. It has a maximum cash-out of $100 and a playthrough requirement of 35x.
Its expected value is calculated as follows:
$35 – ((35 x $35) x 1%) = EV
$35 – ($1225 x 1%) = EV
$35 – $12.25 = EV
$22.75 = EV
As you can see, the EV of this Grand Fortune Casino no deposit bonus is very high which makes it particularly worthwhile to claim.
Exclusive 333 Free Spins on Neon Wheel 7s
Slot Boss Casino has a no deposit new player bonus of £10 free (requires supplying credit card details to secure). It has a playthrough of 99x before you can cash out.
Its expected value is laid out below:
£10 – ((99 x £10) x 1%) = EV
£10 – (£999 x 1%) = EV
£10 – £9.99 = EV
£0.10 = EV
This bonus has a positive value, although just. Remember that the rule of thumb is that a positive EV means a worthwhile bonus.
By using the exclusive Sloto Cash Casino no deposit bonus code TopaffUS you can claim 100 Free Spins. This bonus has a 60x playthrough. Assuming every free spin is worth $0.50, the bonus is worth $25.
Its EV is worked out below:
$20 – ((60 x $25) x 1%) = EV
$20 – ($1500 x 1%) = EV
$20 – $15= EV
$5 = EV
With a positive EV of $5, Sloto Cash’s no deposit bonus code is worth redeeming.
When you enter coupon code NEW15 at iNetBet Casino as a new player, you’ll unlock its generous $20 no deposit bonus to play a variety of games, including slots. It has a very low wagering requirement of 15x.
Here’s how that impacts its expected value:
$10 – ((15 x $10) x 1%) = EV
$10 – ($150 x 1%) = EV
$10 – $1.50= EV
$8.50 = EV
This shows that playing a slot game with a 1% house edge, the EV of this no deposit bonus offer is positive $8.50 which is a big green light to claim this bonus.
Conclusion
From the examples above, you can see how working out the expected value of bonuses can help you decide what bonuses to claim and which to ignore. That said, remember that luck plays a role in all forms of gambling which in the great measure can throw off any EV. Add to that, EV is just an average.
In other words, even if you claim and play bonuses with the positive EVs, there are no guarantees that you’ll always cash out. Similarly, if you claim and play bonus offers with negative EVs and you hit a lucky streak, you may well be able to win and withdraw some real money winnings – 100% free.