Why the Expected Value of No Deposit Bonuses is Important and What You Should Know

By Courtney

Why is knowing the expected value (EV) of no deposit bonuses important? Because it can help you differentiate worthwhile online casino bonuses from not so worthwhile ones. This will ultimately save you the time and effort of trying to capitalise from casino bonuses that are almost impossible to cash out from.

Why the Expected Value of No Deposit Bonuses is Important and What You Should Know

In other words, by understanding the relationship between no deposit bonuses, and their expected value you can limit your bonus choices to those with the best chance of you cashing out from them. The greater the expected value of a bonus offer, the more you should want to claim and use it and vice versa.

But what is expected value? Expected value is, in essence, a mathematical concept aimed at determining the average outcome of a random event. As such it is shown as either a positive or a negative value. So a bonus with a positive expected value means it’s worth claiming while a bonus with a negative value is not.

It’s important to understand that just because a no deposit bonus deal has a positive expected value doesn’t necessarily mean you’ll cash out winnings from it. It just means that your chances of cashing out from it are improved. This is because luck plays a role in all forms of gambling and it all depends on the day.

How do you calculate the expected value of a no deposit bonus?

It’s easy to calculate the EV of a no deposit bonus. All you need is three values to plugin to the EV equation. They are the bonus amount, the bonus wagering requirement (bonus x requirement) and the house edge of the game you play using bonus funds. The equation is: Bonus – (Requirement x Edge) = EV.

For example, consider a no deposit cash bonus of $20 with a wagering requirement of 20x you use to play an online slot game with a return to player (RTP) of 96% i.e. with a house edge of 4%. The EV formula would be as follows:

$20 – ((20 x $20) x 4%) = EV
$20 – ($400 x 4%) = EV
$20 – $16 =EV
$4 = EV

As you can see the EV in this case is positive $4. This means that this no deposit bonus is worth claiming. If, however, the expected value turned out to be negative based on the variables plugged into the equation, we would recommend you seek out better i.e. more worthwhile no deposit bonus to focus your attention on.

10 Examples of No Deposit Bonuses with a Positive EV

It’s one thing to write about best no deposit bonus offers with a positive EV and another to give you actual examples you can claim for yourself. So to put our no deposit bonus cash where our mouth is, see our exclusive no deposit bonuses each with a positive EV. Note: in each example we’ve used a slot with a house edge of 1%.

Fairgo Casino

Fairgo Casino

Fairgo Casino is offering all new players a $15 free casino chip – no deposit required. This bonus has a playthrough requirement of 60x and a max cash out of $180.

Here’s how its expected value works out:

$15 – ((60 x $15) x 1%) = EV
$15 – ($900 x 1%) = EV
$15 – $9 = EV
$6 = EV

With an EV of positive $6, this bonus is definitely worth claiming.

21Dukes Casino

21Dukes Casino

21Dukes Casino has a bold $40 no deposit sign-up bonus you can use to play games from Octopus Gaming or IGTech. It has a 75x requirement and a maximum withdrawal limit of $100.

Here is its EV:

$40 – ((75 x $40) x 1%) = EV
$40 – ($3000 x 1%) = EV
$40 – $30 = EV
$10 = EV

With an EV of positive $10, this no deposit bonus is a must.

Uptown Aces Casino

Uptown Aces Casino

Uptown Aces Casino has an exclusive bonus code UPTOWN10 which activates a free $10 no deposit bonus. It has a 60x playthrough requirement, and a maximum cash out limit of $180.

Check out its EV:

$10 – ((60 x $10) x 1%) = EV
$10 – ($600 x 1%) = EV
$10 – $6 = EV
$4 = EV

With an EV of positive $4, Uptown Aces Casino’s no deposit bonus should not be ignored.

Casino Venetian Casino

Casino Venetian Casino

Casino Venetian is offering new players an exclusive €/$/£10 no deposit bonus. It has a €/$/£100 maximum cash out and a 35x wagering requirement.

Its EV works out to:

€10 – ((35 x $10) x 1%) = EV
€10 – ($350 x 1%) = EV
€10 – $3.50 = EV
€6.50 = EV

With a positive EV of $6.50, you can see why so many players are attracted to this 100% free bonus offer.

M Casino

M Casino

M Casino has an exciting no deposit bonus worth £10 that all newly registering players can take advantage of. It has a winnings withdrawal limit of £50 and a 99x wagering requirement x99. (Note: it requires credit card details to unlock).

Its EV rating is:

£10 – ((99 x £10) x 1%) = EV
£10 – (£999 x 1%) = EV
£10 – £9.99 = EV
£0.10 = EV

Ok, so this is an interesting bonus because it just squeaks out with a positive expected value (if you play a game with house odds of 1%) which makes it worthwhile to claim.

Touch Lucky Casino

Touch Lucky Casino

Touch Lucky Casino is offering all new players 10 Free Spins on Starburst slots. However, its EV can still be calculated if we assume each spin is valued at £1, which multiplied by 20, comes to £20. The bonus wagering requirement is 100x.

Here is its expected value:

£20 – ((100 x £20) x 1%) = EV
£20 – (£2000 x 1%) = EV
£20 – £20 = EV
£0 = EV

This shows us that Touch Lucky Casino’s no deposit bonus has an EV of 0 which means you have a 50/50 chance of cashing out real money winnings which is still appealing.

Grand Fortune Casino

Grand Fortune Casino

Grand Fortune Casino has a no deposit bonus code 35NDBGF which unlocks $35 in free chips. It has a maximum cash-out of $100 and a playthrough requirement of 35x.

Its expected value is calculated as follows:

$35 – ((35 x $35) x 1%) = EV
$35 – ($1225 x 1%) = EV
$35 – $12.25 = EV
$22.75 = EV

As you can see, the EV of this Grand Fortune Casino no deposit bonus is very high which makes it particularly worthwhile to claim.

Slot Boss Casino

Slot Boss Casino

Slot Boss Casino has a no deposit new player bonus of £10 free (requires supplying credit card details to secure). It has a playthrough of 99x before you can cash out.

Its expected value is laid out below:

£10 – ((99 x £10) x 1%) = EV
£10 – (£999 x 1%) = EV
£10 – £9.99 = EV
£0.10 = EV

This bonus has a positive value, although just. Remember that the rule of thumb is that a positive EV means a worthwhile bonus.

Sloto Cash Casino

Sloto Cash Casino

By using the exclusive Sloto Cash Casino no deposit bonus code 50WELCOME you can claim 50 Free Spins on Lucha Libre 2 slots. This bonus has a 60x playthrough. Assuming every free spin is worth $0.50, the bonus is worth $25.

Its EV is worked out below:

$20 – ((60 x $25) x 1%) = EV
$20 – ($1500 x 1%) = EV
$20 – $15= EV
$5 = EV

With a positive EV of $5, Sloto Cash’s no deposit bonus code is worth redeeming.

iNetBet Casino

iNetBet Casino

When you enter coupon code NEW15 at iNetBet Casino as a new player, you’ll unlock its generous $10 no deposit bonus to play a variety of games, including slots. It has a very low wagering requirement of 15x.

Here’s how that impacts its expected value:

$10 – ((15 x $10) x 1%) = EV
$10 – ($150 x 1%) = EV
$10 – $1.50= EV
$8.50 = EV

This shows that playing a slot game with a 1% house edge, the EV of this no deposit bonus offer is positive $8.50 which is a big green light to claim this bonus.

Conclusion

From the examples above, you can see how working out the expected value of bonuses can help you decide what bonuses to claim and which to ignore. That said, remember that luck plays a role in all forms of gambling which in the great measure can throw off any EV. Add to that, EV is just an average.

In other words, even if you claim and play bonuses with the positive EVs, there are no guarantees that you’ll always cash out. Similarly, if you claim and play bonus offers with negative EVs and you hit a lucky streak, you may well be able to win and withdraw some real money winnings – 100% free.

About The Author

Hi, I'm Courtney, the Webmaster at No Deposit Kings - We provide visitors with free and easy access to real money casino gaming thanks to no deposit casino bonuses offered by our hand-picked selection of online casinos.

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